本周重点关注
美元继续走低；
上周的行情在卖出时都会遭到相当激进的买断。而目前从波动率指数的位置看，市场似乎转向了多头，收盘价低于21.8（图1）。
US dollar continues to lose altitude.
In the memory of last week, as every attempt to sell was greeted with a rather aggressive buyout. It seems like from the VIX position the market moved to the bulls' initiative, closing below 21.8 (Fig. 1).
（图1）
指数分析
从交易型基金VXX的角度来看，作为“恐惧指标”的评估，收盘价和走势为市场中的股票买家提供了支撑（图2）。
And from the perspective of the traded fund VXX, as the assessment of the “fear indicator”, the closing and movement from 18.30 provided the buyers of shares in the market with support (Fig. 2).
（图2）
但即便有关联性，标普500指数仍有缺失，3637点上方的强烈刺穿冲力并未发生，指数仍维持在3544-3637区间内（图3）。
But even with such a correlation, the S&P-500 is still missing something, a strong piercing impulse above 3637 has not happened, and the index still remains within the 3544-3637 range (Fig. 3).
（图3）
如果从相关性来看，那么债券收益率和阻力在1.73的表现要显著得多，现在从1.506开始缓慢反弹，如果这一关口被打破，那么下一个止损点可能是1.40，这将反映在市场的压力上（图4）。
In general, if from correlations, then the bond yield and resistance at 1.73 turned out to be much more significant, now a sluggish rebound from 1.506 if the mark is broken, then the next stop will probably be 1.40, which will be reflected in pressure on the markets (Fig. 4).
（图4）
美元关注
只要通胀指标远低于预测值，仍将对美元构成压力。可能会有传闻或预期有关美国经济未来数月甚至数年仍将获得n亿美元。从技术上讲，美元兑日元汇率未能再次突破104.6关口，正朝着103.7的反应价格前进（图5）。
At the same time, rumors or even expectations that the US economy will still receive n-billion in the coming months or even years continues to put pressure on the US dollar as long as inflation indicators turn out to be much lower than forecast values. Technically, the dollar against the yen once again failed to overcome the 104.6 barrier and is heading towards the reaction price of 103.7 (Fig. 5).
（图5）
作为衡量美元强弱的基准，在11月23日的回顾中，美元对日元的基准和关键点104.6才得以凸显，而美元汇率的下降也反映在欧元兑美元汇率上：价格在1.19以上巩固，欧元继续走强（图6）。同样，从基本面来看，欧元依然脆弱得多，但美元资金泛滥的预期迫在眉睫。
As a benchmark for the strength or weakness of the dollar, it was precisely in the review from 23/11 that the dollar-to-yen benchmark and the key point 104.6 were highlighted, and the decline in the dollar exchange rate as a result is reflected in the euro-dollar rate: the price is consolidating above 1.19 and the euro continues to strengthen (Fig. 6 ). Again, on the fundamental side, the euro remains much more vulnerable, but the expectations of a dollar money flood are pressing.
（图6）
黄金关注
黄金对美元汇率继续回调，不再是因为通胀风险有所降低或美元走强，随着1359点上方的升势和1911点上方再度刷新历史新高。比预期更糟糕的报告可能将使市场情绪黯淡，投资者再次将兴趣转向黄金（图7）。
Gold continues to correct against the dollar and no longer because inflation risks have decreased or the dollar is strengthening, we can say that the advance movement above 1359 with the renewal of new historical heights above 1911. It is clear that the time will come when the monetary the mass will shake the inflationary balance, and a number of reports worse than expected will darken the market sentiment, again shifting the interest to gold. (Fig. 7).
（图7）
本周数据关注
本周公布的统计数据稍有不同：如果前几周美国和欧洲的PMI数据令人乐观，那么中国的PMI数据则相当令人信服，制造业PMI升至52.1，非制造业PMI升至56.4，美国指数的反应是在主要交易日前下跌了近一个百分点（图8）。
This week starts a little differently on the publication of statistics: if in the previous weeks the PMI figures of the USA and Europe were met with optimism, then the rather convincing figures from China with an increase in PMI to 52.1 in manufacturing and to 56.4 in non-manufacturing, the American index reacts with almost a percentage drop before the main trading session (Fig. 8).
（图8）
在现阶段最有可能的是那些不希望在接近高点的指数上承担风险的人正在获利。周一欧佩克成员国将举行会议，从技术上讲，石油已经突破了43.31的水平，在脉冲被局部修正后（图9）。
At this stage, most likely, profit is being taken by those who wish not to bear risks on indices near the heights. Also on Monday, a meeting of the OPEC member countries will be held. Technically, oil has overcome the level of 43.31 and after the impulse is being corrected locally (Fig. 9).
（图9）
周二，澳元将把注意力转向通常的剧烈波动，尽管利率决定可能保持在0.1%的历史低位（图10）。技术上，澳元兑美元，包括美元的疲软，在破0.734之后继续上升（图11）。在同一天，欧洲和北美大陆的PMI数据令人期待（图12）。晚上的市场将等待鲍威尔的演讲和更多的生产ISM人物（图13）。
On Tuesday, the Australian dollar will turn its attention to the usual explosion of volatility, even though the interest rate decision is likely to remain at the same historically low level of 0.1% (Chart 10). Technically, the Australian dollar against the US dollar, including the weakness of the US currency, continues to move up after the breakdown of 0.734 (Fig. 11). On the same day, a large block of PMI statistics from Europe and the North American continent is expected (Fig. 12). And by the evening of this busy day, the market will be waiting for the speech of Powell and more production ISM figures (Fig. 13).
（图11）
（图12）
（图13）
周四，欧洲和美国将继续公布PMI数据，以便对经济数据的强度进行分析和评估。
On Thursday, Europe and the US will continue to publish PMI numbers so there will be something to analyze and assess the strength of economic data.
星期五的市场有机会再次复苏，因为劳动力市场的统计数字是是新政府的优先事项之一。尽管失业率预计将下降至6.8%，非农就业人数将再增加50万人，但这一数字与2018-2020年的创纪录值仍相距甚远，这也是市场如此期待额外美元刺激措施的另一个原因（图14）。
Friday and here the market again and again has a chance to revive because statistics from the labor market are next in line, and now this is one of the priorities of the new government. Despite the expected decline in the unemployment rate to 6.8% and an increase in the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector by another plus of 500 thousand, the figures are still very far from the record values of 2018-2020, and this is another reason why the market is so waiting for additional dollar stimulus measures (fig. 14).
（图14）
本文标题：【WisunoFX斯瑞 技术图表】本周交易技术分析
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